MH Prognostics

U.S. Presidential Primaries - MH Prognostics

The inoffical 3 (+2) Wings within U.S. Republicans in 2016

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The 3 "main wings" of Republicans currently are:

CWE - "Conservative War-Machine Establishment" Wing

Ideological Orientation neoconservative-militaristic; economically neoliberal

Size depending on Region / State: 20 to 45%

intra-party power traditionally very influential, currently weakend

Main Goal Maintenance of power, militaristic foreign policy, generous "feeding" of the MIC

Main Candidates 2016 Rubio (very conservative), Bush (conservative)

RTT - "Reactionary Theocratic TeaParty" Wing

Ideological Orientation ultraconservative-reactionary / religious-fundamentalistic / theocratic

Größe depending on Region / State: 15 to 45%

intra-party power since 2000 clearly on the rise, since 2010 nearly as powerful as CWE

Main Goal Transformation of the Republic into a Christian-fundamentalistic theocracy, based on Old Testament laws

Main Candidates 2016 Cruz (Southern Baptist), Carson (Adventist)

NPO - "Nationalist-Populist-Outsider" Wing

Ideological Orientation nationalistic-populist; economically protectionist

Size depending on Region / State: 20 to 40%

intra-party power nearly none up to now, sharply on the rise since Trump's candidacy

Main Goal quite unclear, presumably gaining of power by populist politics and rhetoric

Main Candidates 2016 Trump

The two "small wings" of 2016's Republicans currently are:

MCE - "Moderate Conservative Establishment" Wing

Ideological Orientation moderate conservative, partly paleoconservative

Size depending on Region / State: 10 to 25%

intra-party power since 1980 steadily declining, since 2010 nearly irrelevant.
Exists often only as an appendix of the CWE

Main Goal Classic conservative policy, cautious foreign policy

Main Candidates 2016 Kasich (mainstream conservative), Christie (moderate conservative)

LMC - "Libertarian Moderate Conservative" Wing

Ideological Orientation libertarian, undogmatic moderate conservative; economically neoliberal

Size depending on Region / State: 2 to 8%

intra-party power traditionally low, since 2000 nearly extinct

Main Goal neoliberal economic policy, ideologically undogmatic, cautious foreign policy

Main Candidates 2016 Paul

Ideological Orientation	neoconservative-militaristic; economically neoliberal
Size	depending on Region / State: 20 to 45%
intra-party power	traditionally very influential, currently weakend
Main Goal	Maintenance of power, militaristic foreign policy, generous "feeding" of the MIC
Main Candidates 2016	Rubio (very conservative), Bush (conservative)

Ideological Orientation	ultraconservative-reactionary / religious-fundamentalistic / theocratic
Größe	depending on Region / State: 15 to 45%
intra-party power	since 2000 clearly on the rise, since 2010 nearly as powerful as CWE
Main Goal	Transformation of the Republic into a Christian-fundamentalistic theocracy, based on Old Testament laws
Main Candidates 2016	Cruz (Southern Baptist), Carson (Adventist)

Ideological Orientation	nationalistic-populist; economically protectionist
Size	depending on Region / State: 20 to 40%
intra-party power	nearly none up to now, sharply on the rise since Trump's candidacy
Main Goal	quite unclear, presumably gaining of power by populist politics and rhetoric
Main Candidates 2016	Trump

Ideological Orientation	moderate conservative, partly paleoconservative
Size	depending on Region / State: 10 to 25%
intra-party power	since 1980 steadily declining, since 2010 nearly irrelevant. Exists often only as an appendix of the CWE
Main Goal	Classic conservative policy, cautious foreign policy
Main Candidates 2016	Kasich (mainstream conservative), Christie (moderate conservative)

Ideological Orientation	libertarian, undogmatic moderate conservative; economically neoliberal
Size	depending on Region / State: 2 to 8%
intra-party power	traditionally low, since 2000 nearly extinct
Main Goal	neoliberal economic policy, ideologically undogmatic, cautious foreign policy
Main Candidates 2016	Paul