New Hampshire

Some things to note regarding the New Hampshire Primaries:

(1) Independents may decide until election day if they want to participate in the Democratic or Republican primaries. If a significant larger number of Independents chooses to cast their ballots in the Republican primary, the lead of Mr. Trump will be bigger at the expense of Mr. Sanders lead in the Democratic primary (and vice versa), as both of these candidates will far and away score best with Independents.

(2) New Hampshire is much less religiously conservative than many other states (especially southern ones), which makes it in general a good territory for - the nearly extinct species of - moderate Republicans. Therefore Cruz will have a very hard time in New Hampshire. Rubio should have done well, but nearly self-destructed this week, therefore one of the trio Kasich/Christie/Bush could still have a chance of scoring a Top3 finish. My bet is on Kasich, because he currently is the only "undamaged" of those three.

(3) In New Hampshire official election results sometimes strongly differ from exit polls. Traditionally exit polls and election results match best in counties that vote on paper, while in counties with electronic voting machines sometimes there were remarkable differences.

(4) Depending on how strongly factors (1) and (3) will impact Sanders, he might win only by 5% or score a decisive win by even 25%. In my view for Clinton to win New Hampshire this year is nearly impossible - unless something goes terribly wrong with the vote count.