Nevada

Some things to note regarding the Nevada Democratic Caucus:

(1) Caucus tradition in Nevada is quite young, turnout quite low, forecasts especially difficult, therefore a higher spread in my forecasts.

(2) Nevada will be a first indicator how the Candidates are able to score in the strategically important Southwest (with a well above average Latino share of the population)

(3) Nevada is (nearly) a "must win" for Clinton: If she were to lose also in Nevada, South Carolina would be her last firewall before Super Tuesday to curb Sanders' momentum.

(4) A Sanders win in Nevada would be a surprise, but not impossible. A second win would definitely add to his momentum after New Hampshire. While a second place would curb his momentum, a close second could be good enough for him. If he were to lose by double digits, it would be a severe blow, because next week he will probably lose South Carolina by at least 20-30%.