Nevada

Some things to note regarding the Nevada Republican Caucus:

(1) Caucus tradition in Nevada is quite young, turnout quite low, forecasts especially difficult, therefore a higher spread in my forecasts.

(2) Trump will definitely win Nevada, the only question is how big his winning margin will be.

(3) More exciting could be the answer to the question how big of a tailwind Rubio has achieved since Saturday. It should probably be sufficient for a second place finish.

(4) Kasich and Carson will have a tough day, a result in the double-digits - rather unlikely - would be a pleasant surprise for them.