Election Forecasts - MH Prognostics

Remarks on presumptive accuracy of Forecasts in the 2016 Presidential Primary season

The accuracy of Forecasts of MH Prognostics will probably decline after Iowa and New Hampshire, because of
(a) the amount of openly available data for the later states is considerably poorer than for IA and NH
(b) my involvement and close observation of the 2003/04 primary season with focus on Iowa and New Hampshire, therefore I expect to project these two states probably a bit better than the rest.

Hence MH Prognostics will publish detailed forecasts (regarding order of candidates, including projected result percentage with a certain spread) only for the "Early Four" states i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

For all other states down the road (beginning from "Super Tuesday") MH Prognostics will project only the winners of respective primaries or caucuses, and whenever possible (if assessability seems sufficient) also the expected range of the winning margin (e.g. 5-10%) between first and second place as well as the order of the remaining candidates.

The " Chances Ticker" to win the nomination will be updated at least after every major contest, if necessary also in between, in case of dramatic events to occur which might change the dynamics of the race considerably and therefore also the chances for winning the nomination.