Comments regarding the state of the race

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General Election - Baseline Situation | Rep. Convention | Dem. Convention | August | September | 1st TV-Debate | Last TV-Debate | Final
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General Election - Baseline Situation [Comment of 2016-06-30]

Regarding the situation at the beginning of the General Election Campaign I am going to re-publish my comment, which I wrote about three weeks ago after Final Tuesday, i.e. after the end of the primary season.

The end of the primary season also marked the beginning of the General Election Campaign.

Although most consider Mrs. Clinton to be the clear favorite for November, in my view the current favorite is Trump, because of the following two main reasons:

1) Whereas Trump is relatively popular with Independents (only Sanders would be stronger with that electorate), Clinton's favorability with Independents is quite low. Even if nearly all Sanders supporters are ultimately going to vote for Clinton, it will still be very difficult for her to win in November, if she does not manage to turn the tide with Independents. As there have nearly always been more conservative (Republican) than liberal (Democratic) loyal voters at Presidential Elections in the past decades, Democrats only have a shot at winning the White House, if they can win a significant majority (>55%) of ideological moderate and Independent voters. Clinton will probably even have to fight quite hard for keeping New Hampshire (Democratic-leaning swing state with an outstanding percentage of Independent voters) from falling into Trump's column.

2) As electoral majorites in many states are de facto set in stone due to the "first-past-the-post" electoral system, in the last 15 to 20 years in most cases two regions turned out to be decisive swing regions: The MidWest (with 91 Electoral Votes) the Southwest (excl. Utah) from Nevada to Colorado (with 31 EVs), and the states of Pennsylvania (20 EV), Virginia (13 EV) and New Hampshire (4 EV). Democrats could win the Presidency only if the managed to achieve a clear majority of states in those critical regions, i.e. they usually needed at least 62 of the 91 electoral votes in the MidWest, and at least 20 of 31 in the SouthWest, plus Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Especially in critical MidWestern states Clinton seems to falter, as she has a tough road ahead to score points against a protectionist candidate like Trump in the economically challenged "Rust Belt"

In my "baseline" forecast (First MH election result forecast for Nov. 8th) I see Clinton in the range from 227 to 285 Electoral Votes, while I see Trump in a range of 253 and 311 EVs, thus heading with a slight edge into the final months.
In my main forecast - the result with the highest probability - due to fundamental data I currently expect a close Trump win in the Electoral College with 282 to 256 Electoral Votes.

Can Clinton still win? Of course. But it won't be easy for her.

In order to win, she would have to regain strength especially in those (light blue) states where her lead shrank to a small edge (currently Pennsylvania looks most endangered, but also Michigan - we remember what happened in the primary this March - could turn out to be a nailbiter), and to win back some other (rose) states, where fundamentals are drifting away from her.
Ohio and Florida - two of the three "big prices" - will be very tough to win for Clinton. As we all know since 2000, a Democratic candidate should never bank on Florida especially when the state government is under Republican control. And Ohio and Iowa are trending Republican, so it will be quite difficult for her to hold on to those states. Therefore she probably will have to win at least one of the Atlantic duo of Virginia (likely) and North Carolina (not so likely), and additionally win New Hampshire (which normally would be a must-win for any Democrat, but will be a tough race as well). In the Southwest Nevada still is winnable for her, but as her opponent is a certain Mr. Trump, I would hesitate to bank on the "Casino state".

Regionally the decision who will be the VP candidate could be a factor. Clinton's favorites are probably Castro (of Texas) and Kaine (of Virginia). While Castro probably would bring more to the Democratic ticket on a national scale, he still would not carry his deeply Republican home state of Texas with him, whereas the rather uncharismatic Kaine would be a nationally low-key but safe choice who could help her to keep Virginia in the Democratic column more easily.
Regarding Trump probably anything is possible (the likely strategically best choice for him would be to pick someone from a MidWestern state, but in his situation it would be probably more important to pick some Republican with lots of experience, to unite the Republican base and the GOP behind his candidacy), therefore I currently do not dare to make a VP forecast for the Republican side. Anyway, I do make a guess: I can't really imagine Trump to pick some bitter rival like Rubio or Cruz for VP, but I think someone like Christie would probably be a plausible option in Trump's mind.

Republican Convention [comment of 2016-07-22]

After some initial difficulties in my view Trump used the GOP convention quite well. I think it would be a big error to underestimate his highly criticized nomination speech, as his speech was exactly tailored for his most important demographic: white disillusioned blue collar workers in the MidWest, many of whom lost their jobs (with stagnant wages) or live in fear of losing it soon. Because the parts of his speech that will stuck with his audience of LIVs (low information voters) will be a few short but appealing core messages, among those:
"I am your voice. I'm with you." and "Make America strong/proud/safe/great again."

If Trump is going to repeat these core statements over and over until November, the majority of MidWestern states will turn out to be a very tough road for Clinton. In my view - from Clinton's perspective - Ohio und Iowa are essentially lost, meanwhile I even fear that Pennsylvania (an absolute "must win" state for Clinton) could already have gone slightly over the edge. Additionally New Hampshire will be tough to hold in the Northeast, and possibly even parts of Maine (one of a few states, where EVs are being awarded on a congressional district base).

At least Virginia seems quite safe now after Kaine presumably will be Clinton's VP. Also in the Southwest Clinton's chances look good. And in the Northeast some help from Sanders could help her to hold on New Hampshire and Maine. So it's about time that Clinton focuses on MidWestern swing states, possibly with some support from Biden and/or Obama. Because if - besides Ohio and Iowa - she were also to lose states of the Trio Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan (currently unlikely, but her lead shrinks every week), it would esentially spell "game over" for Clinton.

My updated forecast currently expects a Trump victory by 290 to 248 EVs. If Clinton can hold on to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, that could be enough for a close win of 272 zo 266 EVs, which proves again how important those two states might turn out to be for Clinton (We remember: If in 2000 Al Gore had won only a few thousands more votes in New Hampshire, even Bush's close "win" in Florida - strongarmed by questionable methods - would not have been enough to put the Republican into the White House).

Democratic Convention [comment of 2016-07-31]

The Democratic Convention turned out as Democrats intended it. Strong support from Sanders and a remarkable speech of the First Lady should be sufficient to generate a good chunk of momentum and tailwinds for Clinton.

In my current forecast Clinton can catch up with Trump for the first time, that would mean a 269 to 269 tie in the Electoral College, which in the end of the day would still amount to a President Trump, because of the high likelyhood of a Repulican majority in the House (which would determine the winner if a tie occurs in the Electoral college) due to the structural Republican advantage regarding redistricting.

As Iowa and Ohio are still trending in Trump's direction, Clinton could manage to win a slim majority of EVs, if she can win Nevada and/or New Hampshire (both states are currently on the edge). In the end Clinton (as Al Gore 2000) could miss the Presidency only by failing to win New Hampshire (Sanders probably would win New Hampshire quite easily - but that option is over for this cycle).

August (Khan controversy) [comment of 2016-08-03]

The "Khan controversy" seems to have damaged Trump's campaign a bit. But if the damage is deep and long-lasting enough to make a real difference remains to be seen.
My current forecast for the first(!) time in this election season predicts a narrow Clinton victory by 285 to 253 EVs.

September (Clinton collapse) [comment of 2016-09-13]

Clinton's growing momentum after the Democratic Convention effectively stalled when she collapsed after leaving a Sept.11 memorial, because such events fuel speculation about her state of health. And considering that her opponent is an absolute "alpha male" (Trump) that's the very last thing she could need. Rationally that should not matter much, if she is able to make public appearances in a vital manner within a few days and able to avoid similar mishaps. But such events operate on a subconscious level, therefore nearly nobody is able to make a serious guess, to what extent it may influence subconciously certain groups in the electorate (in my estimation, a lot more than most people think).

My current election forecast reverted back to a tie, even my main forecast (calculated scenario with highest probability) projects a 269 to 269 tie in the Electoral college. Whether Trump eventually will be able to score one of Maine's four electoral votes (and thus win outright by 270 to 268), would be secondary, as in Clinton in any case will need at least 270 EVs, because if a tie happens, the - very likely Republican controlled - House would pick the President.

First TV Debate [comment of 2016-09-28]

After Clinton did a good job in the first big TV debate while Trump seemed to be unusually nervous, my forecast projects Clinton winning by 329 to 209 electoral votes. At first sight this margin seems to be quite comfortable, but on a closer view Clinton leads in several critical states quite narrowly. If Florida, North Carolina and Iowa only marginally trend in Trump's direction, her lead would shrink to a small 279 to 259 margin. And if she furthermore loses New Hampshire and Nevada, she would fall below the decisive mark of 270 EVs. Thus Clinton's "margin of error" in reality is much smaller than it appears on a first glance.

Last TV Debate [comment of 2016-10-21]

While Trump managed to (re-)gain some ground after his disappointing showing in the first TV debate, about two weeks ago some news broke, showing that he uttered some not-so-kind things about women. Nearly every normal candidate would be damaged beyond repair and policitally finished at this moment, even a guy like Trump should be damaged deeply. But hey, this is Trump! Therefore it seems absolutely possible, that he could balance his losses in the female electorate with more support from some knee-slapping men, who admire him for emphasizing his image as a "strong leader" who simply does not mince his words. Therefore this controversy could turn out to be quantitatively a zero-sum game in votes for Trump, but qualitatively he even may have been able to motivate his core base even more.

Clinton seems to have prevailed also in the last TV debate, therefore I project that most changes since the first TV debate have been balanced out. Therefore my current main election forecast again projects Clinton to win by 329 to 209 electoral votes. Actually that should be enough for her for the final weeks. But as her lead is structurally a lot less safe than Obama's in 2012 at that time, she probably will have to sweat a lot until election day, because already small fluctuations in the range of two to four percent in some critical swing states may be enough for Clinton to fall to her expected floor of 240 electoral votes, whereas Trump could max out his ceiling which I expect to be at 298 EVs. Conversely of course Clinton could also score a relatively comfortable victory in the range of Obama's 2012 win, if there were a trend of similiar size in her direction in the last few days before election day.

Final [comment of 2016-11-08]

A Presidential race often tightens in the last days... it seems to happen also this year. Trump's last video is in a surprisingly positive tone and could have a bigger impact than expected, because thus he could appeal better to undecided voters than if he were to spread only negative messages. The fact that Pres. Obama was sent to Michigan yesterday, is not a very good sign for Clinton. Because if even Michigan goes down to the wire, she will have to sweat a lot to win this election.

Despite of the tightening of this race, Clinton still remains the favorite to win the Presidency, albeit probably with a margin significantly closer than it was commonly expected a few weeks ago.
My last main election result forecast projects Clinton to win nationwide by roughly two percentage points, and favors her also in the Electoral College with a projected tally of >279 to >215 EVs. For the remaining 44 EVs (Florida & North Carolina) my last forecast makes no projection, because those two states seem to be on a knife's edge and therefore absolutely "too close to call" for me (although I personally think that they are trending slightly Republican).
Because of Clinton's shrinking lead in several critical swing states and a high probability of a small last-minute-trend in favor of Trump my final "chances of victory" forecast for Clinton is down to roughly 61%, whereas Trump's chances of winning the Presidency have risen to roughly 38%.

Clinton is still heading into election day with a small advantage, but her (likely) victory is far from being locked up.

Which states will this year - if it is again close enough nationally - be decisive in the electoral college?
"must win" states for Clinton: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan; Pennsylvania; as well as Nevada OR New Hampshire.
"must win" states for Trump: Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina; as well as Michigan OR Pennsylvania OR Nevada AND New Hampshire.

Trump knows that turning Ohio and Iowa (where his odds are good) in the MidWest won't be enough for him; he will additionally need at least one more relevant state, like e.g. Pennsylvania or Michigan (which will be much more difficult, but not impossible for him; it will be difficult to a similar extent like it would be for Clinton to hold on to Ohio or Iowa).

Therefore I project that this year's decisive states might be Pennsylvania (and possibly New Hampshire); because in both of them Clinton's lead in the past 2-3 weeks was nearly cut in half to a margin of less than 4%, meaning that a possible further trend of only 2% from Clinton to Trump could be enough to push these states over into the Republican column.

Despite a variety of strategic mistakes by the Clinton campaign I assume that she will somehow be able to drag herself over the finish line before Trump, as the Republican candidate seems to be disliked even more than his Democratic opponent. The campaigns' get-out-the-vote efforts in a handful of swing states might determine who wins this election (with presumably an organizational advantage for Clinton, whereas Trump might have the edge regarding the motivation of his voter base).

Conclusio:

If Clinton manages to hold on to Pennsylvania AND New Hampshire, that will probably be enough for her to win this election. If she loses NH narrowly, she might still save herself by winning Nevada. But if she were to lose Pennsylvania (which would amount to her losing Ohio decisively), her remaining paths to victory would be nearly non-existent.
I consider a Clinton win of 279 to 259 electoral votes to be the most likely scenario, whereby in my final main forecast I assume Florida and North Carolina to be "too close to call", what results to my final election result forecast of >279 EVs for Clinton and >215 EVs for Trump.

Now it is up to the U.S. citizens to decide who will win the White House...