Election Forecast - USA 2016 - MH Prognostics
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U.S. General Election | U.S. Presidential Primaries
D 61% R 38% I <1%
Current chances for Presidency [time series]

Graphical long-term forecast for individual states:
MH-win forecast of 2016-06-30 for 45 of 50(+1) states (incl. D.C.)


Final MH Election Result Forecast of 2016-11-08 [as of 11:20 p.m. CET]
for 49 of 50(+1) States for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Final Forecast | Result]
Comments
[weighting factor for available polls in final main forecast: 50%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forecast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 2%)
Clinton (D) >279 232 323 47.5%
Trump (R) >215 215 306 45.5%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 5.5%
other 0 0 6 1.5%

US Senate: MH Result Forecast of 2016-11-08 [11:45 pm CET] for Senate Elections 2016: 50 D(+I), 50 R. [Forecast | Result]

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MH Election Forecast of 2016-10-21 (after last TV debate) for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Chart]
[weighting factor for available polls in main forecast: 42%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forecast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 2%)
Clinton (D) 329 240 358 48%
Trump (R) 209 180 298 44%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 6%
other 0 0 6 2%

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MH Election Forecast of 2016-09-28 (after 1st TV Debate) for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Chart]
[weighting factor for available polls in main forecast: 30%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forecast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 3%)
Clinton (D) 329 249 358 48%
Trump (R) 209 180 289 45%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 5%
other 0 0 0 2%

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MH Election Forecast of 2016-09-13 (unscheduled; after Clinton Collapse) for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Chart]
[weighting factor for available polls in main forecast: 22%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forcast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 3%)
Clinton (D) 269 207 332 46%
Trump (R) 269 206 331 46%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 6%
other 0 0 0 2%

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MH Election Forecast of 2016-08-03 (unscheduled; after Khan Controversy) for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Chart]
[weighting factor for available polls in main forecast: 12%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forecast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 3%)
Clinton (D) 285 249 347 47%
Trump (R) 253 191 289 44%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 7%
other 0 0 0 2%

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MH Election Forecast of 2016-07-30 (after Democratic Convention) for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Chart]
[weighting factor for available polls in main forecast: 10%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forecast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 3%)
Clinton (D) 269 207 332 46%
Trump (R) 269 206 331 46%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 6%
other 0 0 0 2%

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MH Election Forecast of 2016-07-22 (after Republican Convention) for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Chart]
[weighting factor for available polls in main forecast: 7%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forecast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 3%)
Clinton (D) 248 213 285 44%
Trump (R) 290 253 325 47%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 7%
other 0 0 0 2%

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1st MH Election Forecast ("G.E. Baseline Forecast") of 2016-06-30 for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election [Chart]
[weighting factor for available polls in main forecast: 2%]

Candidate Electoral
Votes (EV)
Main Forecast 		EV
Min. 		EV
Max. 		Popular Vote
(+/- 3%)
Clinton (D) 256 227 285 45%
Trump (R) 282 253 311 46%
Johnson (L) 0 0 0 7%
other 0 0 0 2%

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U.S. Presidential Primaries 2016
D 33% R 66% I 01%
Remarks regarding accuracy of forecasts Chances for Presidency (08.06.2016) [time series]

Current Chances of winning the nomination of their own party [time series]
Democrats Clinton Sanders other Republicans Trump Cruz Kasich other
2016-06-08 (after FT) 98% 1% 1% 2016-06-08 (after FT) 99% 0% 0% 1%
Ø percentage required for Sanders in remaining primaries to be able to
still win a majority of pledged delegates: 67.5% (as of 2016-05-25)

Won to date: Primaries and Pledged Delegates
Did you know yet that... ?
Democrats Clinton Sanders other Republicans Trump Cruz Rubio other
Pledged Delegates
(final score) 		2218
54.8% 		1833
45.2% 		0
0.0% 		Pledged Delegates
(final score) 		1445
61.0% 		551
23.3% 		174
7.3% 		198
8.4%
Primaries won 31 23 0 Primaries won 37 11 3 1

Democratic Primaries - graphical long-term forecast for individual states at beginning of primary season:
MH-win forecast for 40 of 50 states (2016-02-20) | final result (2016-06-15)


Primary result forecasts for individual states
Retrospection & Comments
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"Early Four" | "Super Tuesday" | "Super Saturday Weekend" | "Big Tuesday" || "Western Week" | April | May || June
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>> Note: Primary Forecasts after "Big Tuesday" due to lack of time in German only <<


Iowa [Caucus on 2016-02-01]

MH Final Forecast of 2016-02-01 (11:50 pm CET):
Democrats | Republicans | Remarks

Results:
Democrats | Republicans

"Reality Check" of Forecasts:
Democrats | Republicans


New Hampshire [Primary on 2016-02-09]

MH Forecasts:
Pre-Prognosis 2016-02-01 (11:50 pm CET): Democrats | Republicans
Final Forecast 2016-02-09 (11:58 pm CET): Democrats | Republicans | Remarks

Results:
Democrats | Republicans

"Reality Check":
Democrats | Republicans


Nevada [Dem. caucus on 2016-02-20, Rep. caucus on 2016-02-23]

MH Forecasts
Pre-Prognosis of 2016-02-13: Democrats: too close to call | Republicans: 1. Trump, 2. Cruz, 3. Rubio.
Final Forecast Dem 2016-02-20 (10:57 pm CET): Democrats | Remarks
Final Forecast Rep 2016-02-23 (09:55 pm CET): Republicans | Remarks

Results:
Democrats | Republicans

"Reality Check":
Democrats | Republicans


South Carolina [Rep. primary on 2016-02-20, Dem. primary on 2016-02-27]

MH Forecasts:
Pre-Prognosis 2016-02-13: Democrats: Clinton (Lead: 15-25%) | Republicans: 1. Trump, 2./3. Cruz/Rubio, 4./5. Bush/Kasich.
Final Forecast Rep 2016-02-20 (11:05 pm CET): Republicans | Remarks
Final Forecast Dem 2016-02-26 (08:05 am CET): Democrats | Remarks

Results:
Democrats | Republicans

"Reality Check":
Democrats | Republicans


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Super Tuesday [Primaries & Caucuses on 2016-03-01]

MH Final Forecast of 2016-03-01 [Pre-Prognosis of 2016-02-20 | 2016-02-13]
MH Forecast DEM Result Democrats MH Forecast REP Result Republicans
State Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin
Alabama Clinton 45-55% Clinton +59% Trump (2. Rubio) 15-25% Trump (2. Cruz) +22%
Alaska caucus 2016-03-26 --- caucus 2016-03-26 --- Trump (2. tctc) 15-25% Cruz (2. Trump) +3%
Arkansas Clinton 25-35% Clinton +36% Trump (2. Cruz) 5-10% Trump (2. Cruz) +2%
Colorado Sanders 5-10% Sanders +19% Trump (2. Rubio) 15-25% (*) ----- ---
Georgia Clinton 35-45% Clinton +43% Trump (2. Rubio) 10-20% Trump (2. Rubio) +14%
Massachusetts tctc(too close to call) <5% Clinton +1% Trump (2. Rubio) 25-35% Trump (2. Kasich) +31%
Minnesota tctc(too close to call) <5% Sanders +23% Trump (2. Cruz) 10-20% Rubio (2. Trump) +7%
North Dakota primary 2016-06-07 --- primary 2016-06-07 --- Trump (2. Rubio) 15-25% (*) ----- ---
Oklahoma Sanders <5% Sanders +10% Trump (2. tctc) 10-20% Cruz (2. Trump) +6%
Tennessee Clinton 20-30% Clinton +34% Trump (2. tctc) 20-30% Trump (2. Cruz) +14%
Texas Clinton 25-35% Clinton +32% Cruz (2. Trump) 5-10% Cruz (2. Trump) +17%
Vermont Sanders 65-75% Sanders +72% Trump (2. Kasich) 20-30% Trump (2. Kasich) +3%
Virginia Clinton 15-25% Clinton +29% Trump (2. Rubio) 10-20% Trump (2. Rubio) +3%
(*) no official results in those states, because only "non-binding caucuses" were held.
green: Winner projected correctly (respectively winning margin within projected range)
red: Winner projected not correctly (respectively winning margin outside projected range)

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Super Saturday Weekend [Primaries & Caucuses on March 5th/6th]:

MH Final Forecast of 2016-03-05 (08:57 pm CET)
MH Forecast DEM Result Democrats MH Forecast REP Result Republicans
Date State Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin
2016-03-05 Kansas Sanders 10-20% Sanders +35% Cruz (2. Trump) 5-10% Cruz (2. Trump) +25%
2016-03-05 Kentucky primary 2016-05-17 --- primary 2016-05-17 --- Trump (2. Cruz) 5-10% Trump (2. Cruz) +4%
2016-03-05 Louisiana Clinton 45-55% Clinton +48% Trump (2. Cruz) 10-20% Trump (2. Cruz) +4%
2016-03-05 Maine primary 2016-03-06 --- primary 2016-03-06 --- Trump (2. tctc) 5-10% Cruz (2. Trump) +13%
2016-03-05 Nebraska Sanders 5-15% Sanders +14% primary 2016-05-10 --- primary 2016-05-10 ---

2016-03-06 Maine Sanders 25-35% Sanders +29% caucus 2016-03-05 --- caucus 2016-03-05 ---
2016-03-06 Puerto Rico caucus 2016-06-05 --- caucus 2016-06-05 --- Rubio (2. tctc) 20-30% Rubio (2. Trump) +58%


Primaries of March 8 - 12 (Michigan etc.)

MH Final Forecast of 2016-03-08 (06:55 pm CET)
MH Forecast DEM Result Democrats MH Forecast REP Result Republicans
Date State Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin
2016-03-08 Dem. abroad Sanders 25-35% Sanders +39% ------ --- ------ ---
2016-03-08 Hawaii caucus 2016-03-26 --- caucus 2016-03-26 --- Rubio (2. Cruz) <5% Trump (2. Cruz) +10%
2016-03-08 Idaho caucus 2016-03-22 --- caucus 2016-03-22 --- Cruz (2. Trump) <5% Cruz (2. Trump) +17%
2016-03-08 Michigan Clinton <5% Sanders +2% Trump (2. tctc) 10-20% Trump (2. Cruz) +12%
2016-03-08 Mississippi Clinton 55-65% Clinton +66% Trump (2. Cruz) 10-20% Trump (2. Cruz) +11%

MH Final Forecast of 2016-03-12 (09:45 pm CET)
2016-03-12 District of Col. primary 2016-06-14 --- primary 2016-06-14 --- Kasich (2. Rubio) <5% Rubio (2. Kasich) +2%
2016-03-12 Wyoming primary 2016-04-09 --- primary 2016-04-09 --- Cruz (2. Trump) 15-25% Cruz (2. Rubio) +47%

green: Winner projected correctly (respectively winning margin within projected range)
red: Winner projected not correctly (respectively winning margin outside projected range)

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Big Tuesday [Primaries on 2016-03-15]

MH Final Forecast of 2016-03-15 (10:58 pm CET)
MH Forecast DEM Result Democrats MH Forecast REP Result Republicans
Date State Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin
2016-03-15 Florida Clinton 15-25% Clinton +31% Trump (2. Rubio) 15-25% Trump (2. Rubio) +19%
2016-03-15 Illinois Sanders <5% Clinton +2% Trump (2. Cruz) 5-10% Trump (2. Cruz) +9%
2016-03-15 Missouri Sanders <5% too close to call +0% Cruz (2. Trump) <5% too close to call +0%
2016-03-15 North Carolina Clinton 15-25% Clinton +14% Trump (2. Cruz) 10-20% Trump (2. Cruz) +3%
2016-03-15 Ohio too close to call <5% Clinton +14% Kasich (2.Trump) 5-10% Kasich (2.Trump) +11%

green: Winner projected correctly (respectively winning margin within projected range)
red: Winner projected not correctly (respectively winning margin outside projected range)

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June

Note: For the Demoratic primary in Puerto Rico on June 5th - as for all other island regions - due to lack of regional knowledge and data I do not calculate a detailed forecast. But Clinton is expected to win that primary easily.

Final Tuesday [Primaries on 2016-06-07]

MH Final Forecast of 2016-06-07 (11:35 pm CEST)
MH Forecast DEM Result Democrats MH Forecast REP Result Republicans
Date State Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin Winner Margin
2016-06-07 California too close to call <5% Clinton +12% Trump 55-65% Trump +64%
2016-06-07 Montana Sanders 10-20% Sanders +7% Trump 50-60% Trump +64%
2016-06-07 New Jersey Clinton 20-30% Clinton +26% Trump 55-65% Trump +67%
2016-06-07 New Mexico Clinton 2-12% Clinton +3% Trump 45-55% Trump +57%
2016-06-07 North Dakota Sanders 15-25% Sanders +39% no primary --- no primary ---
2016-06-07 South Dakota Sanders 2-12% Clinton +2% Trump 45-55% Trump +50%

Final Primary
2016-06-14 District of Col. Clinton 45-55% Clinton +57% caucus 2016-03-12 --- caucus 2016-03-12 ---


back to Top | Retrospection & Comments

>> Clarifications regarding the most important differences between conventional Election Polls and Election Result Forecasts by MH Prognostics <<
Last Forecast from: 2016-11-08 | Last substantial change on: 2016-11-19 | © 2016 by MH Prognostics [@Democracy_AT | universalist@gmx.at | 1230 Wien]